Wednesday 25 February 2015

Inconsistent behaviour

Poignant quote from 4th edition of 'What Works on Wall Street'


Money Management Performance

Past records of most traditional mangers cannot be predictive of future returns because their behavior is inconsistent.  You can’t make forecasts based on inconsistent behavior.

Monday 2 February 2015

Warren Buffett on solving difficult problems

Warren Buffett on solving difficult problems:

"After 25 years of buying and supervising a great variety of businesses, Charlie and I have not learned how to solve difficult business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them. To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers. The finding may seem unfair, but in both business and investments it is usually far more profitable to simply stick with the easy and obvious than it is to resolve the difficult. On occasion, tough problems must be tackled as was the case when we started our Sunday paper in Buffalo. In other instances, a great investment opportunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a one-time huge, but solvable, problem as was the case many years back at both American Express and GEICO. Overall, however, we've done better by avoiding dragons than by slaying them."